Endangered Massachusetts Democrat incumbents looking to crush a recent crop of far-left challengers should study Super Tuesday’s turnout to avoid the kind of blockbuster upset that cost former U.S. Rep. Michael Capuano his seat in 2018, pundits say.
Bay State voters flocked to the polls Tuesday to register their voice in the 2020 Democratic nomination — and the demographics that make up those votes can help local Democrats fine-tune their campaign and messaging.
“This will give some insight into the minds of the Massachusetts voter,” Democratic consultant Scott Ferson said about Tuesday’s turnout. “I’ve had plenty of incumbent state representatives say to me, ‘I’m not sure I’m reading my district correctly. I’m just not sure what they’re thinking.’ ”
Democratic incumbents at the state and federal level have drawn a roster of challengers in Massachusetts following the unexpected victory of U.S. Rep. Ayanna Pressley, who knocked 10-year incumbent congressman Capuano out of office in 2018. High-ranking Boston state representatives Jeff Sanchez and Byron Rushing were voted out of office in the same election.
“That was a direct message to incumbents saying, ‘You can’t just rest on your laurels,’” said Steve Kerrigan, former candidate for lieutenant governor and a longtime Democratic Party insider. “There’s a lot less uniformity than there was in the past in terms of Democratic voters,” he said.
U.S. Sen. Edward Markey, D-Melrose, is defending his seat against Brookline Democrat U.S. Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III. U.S. Rep. Richard Neal, D-Springfield, running for his 17th term, is facing a serious challenge from Holyoke Mayor Alex B. Morse.
Kennedy’s empty seat has sparked another competitive Democratic race to be decided in the Sept. 1 primary. Jake Auchincloss, a Newton city councilor; City Year cofounder Alan Khazei; and Jesse Mermell, a former Gov. Deval Patrick aide, are just some of the candidates in that six-person race.
Voter turnout in Massachusetts, predicted by Secretary of State William Galvin to be as high as 1.5 million, can also help Democrats determine whether the kind of voters who sent Pressley to office are still energized and active. Pressley’s candidacy energized a raft of new voters, with a large number of those being female or under 44 years old.
Presidential contests notoriously draw a larger turnout than state elections, so Tuesday’s contest isn’t a perfect reflection of the Sept. 1 contests for that reason alone. But the outcome of Super Tuesday can affect local Democrats in other ways.
“A strong Sanders showing emboldens this ultra-progressive wing of the Democratic Party, and that’s where we’re seeing most of these challenges,” Ferson said.
